NGP Capital was founded in 2005. This year, we turn 20.

What did we learn? What did we celebrate? What humbled us? And, more importantly, what are we looking forward to in the next 20 years?

As we reflect on our journey, we want to express our deepest gratitude to our long-standing LP, Nokia, the hundreds of founders who partnered with us globally, and our team – their dedication, trust, and collaboration have been instrumental in shaping who we are today.

The Power of Conviction

What happens if you are right before everyone else? What happens if you are in an environment that disagrees with your conviction? Often, people may disagree with you, and even with a supportive environment, the question remains—will you act on your conviction?

As investors over the last 20 years, we have learned that we need to put money where our conviction lies. It could be in an entrepreneur, a market trend, or business metrics that we believe in.

Betting on Mobile First

In 2005, we started NGP Capital with a simple thesis: ‘Mobile First.’ We believed that anything available online would eventually become available on a mobile device. At the time, most investors were busy building businesses on the World Wide Web using PCs and laptops, exploring early social media, e-commerce, and payment systems. Little credence was given to the potential of mobile devices.

Our first exit came in May 2006 with Bitboys Oy, a company that developed graphics technology for mobile gaming, acquired by ATI Technologies for $44M. Our second exit followed in November 2007, when Coding Technologies AB, which developed audio compression technology for mobile devices, was acquired by Dolby Labs for $250M in cash. Both investments yielded over 100% IRR.

We were off to a flying start, yet very much on our own. At the time, we did not fully grasp how big mobile services would become. Looking back, we didn’t know how right we were. This is not self-congratulation, but rather a reflection of missed opportunities—had we fully understood the potential, our investment approach would have been even bolder.

Navigating the Global Financial Crisis

In 2008, the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) hit, and for much of that year and early 2009, it felt as though the financial system was collapsing. In hindsight, we should have doubled or tripled our investment efforts, but instead, we hesitated.

Fortunately, in 2008, during the darkest hours, we doubled down on an early investment in Heptagon, a micro-optical company, ultimately selling it in 2017 to AMS in a billion-dollar exit—our largest in Europe to date. During the GFC, we also strengthened our efforts in China, investing in UC Web (a mobile internet proxy accelerator) and Ganji (a mobile classifieds service). UC Web was acquired by Alibaba in May 2013, and Ganji was acquired by Tencent-backed 58.com in May 2015—both billion-dollar exits.

Coming out of the GFC we accelerated our investment pace within Adtech, one of our ‘Mobile First’ focus areas, where in August of 2010 added Rocket Fuel to our portfolio. By September 2013 the company went public and traded to a market cap in excess of $2 Billion.

The Rise of the Connected World

As mobile ecosystems matured by 2014, we shifted focus to a new thesis: a ‘Connected World.’ We envisioned an era driven by IoT devices embedding intelligence everywhere, alongside an upper layer of the mobile stack delivering services at massive scale.

This conviction led us to invest in companies such as Babbel, Whistle, Moovit, GetYourGuide, Deliveroo, Limebike, eGym, Scandit, Xnor, Zum, and Shadowfax.

Surviving the Pandemic

Then, in 2020, COVID-19 hit. Any business with a physical component was metaphorically crucified—except Deliveroo. Fortunately, we secured a billion-dollar exit with Moovit in May 2020, while Babbel, Pubmatic, and Security Scorecard experienced accelerated growth, and Pubmatic successfully executing a $1.5 billion IPO.

Meanwhile, companies like GetYourGuide, Limebike, eGym, and Zum suffered tremendously—only to emerge as some of the highest revenue-generating companies in our active portfolio today.

The pandemic was a disorienting period—marked by immense suffering but also rapid technological acceleration across many verticals.

The Next 20 Years: Convergence

As we prepared for our fifth fund in 2021-2022, we revisited our thesis. The tech boom induced by COVID-19 was bound to create a hangover effect, resetting public markets from a ‘growth at all costs’ mentality to a renewed focus on value.

Creating a thesis is NOT about being right—it’s about how much we dare to believe in our conviction today or tomorrow.

Early winners in a domain may not remain winners. Some, like Amazon, defy the odds. Others, like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia, manage to thrive across decades, while companies like Intel face restructuring.

With information hurtling at us at lightning speed, the key question is: what do you do with the firehose of data?

Our Future Focus: The Era of Convergence

Looking ahead, we believe the next two decades will be shaped by the seamless Convergence of the physical and digital domains. This is our conviction.

What does Convergence mean? And what are the building blocks required for it?

1. A Real-Time Digital Representation of the Physical World – Machines and robots will require millimetre-accurate, real-time environmental data to function efficiently. Sensing (computer vision, digital twins, sensors) is the input, while actuation (robotic dexterity, environmental controls, actuators) is the output. Robotics investments such as Ati Motors, Anybotics, and GrayMatter Robotics exemplify this shift.
2. Human-Machine Collaboration – Many tasks benefit from human-machine fusion, from lifting heavy objects to medical diagnostics, logistics planning, and even steering spacecraft. Machines, broadly defined as computers and robots, will augment human capabilities in unprecedented ways.
3. Seamless Experience of Information – Today, we interact with the digital world through smartphones. In the future, smart glasses, voice control, contact lenses, and micro-projectors will seamlessly integrate data into our daily lives. Fully immersive AR/VR experiences—and possibly brain-computer interfaces—will become a reality.
4. A Decentralised Compute Architecture – Computing will happen where it is needed most, from devices and edge systems to data centres. AI inference and training will drive this shift. Our investments in Platform9, Akeyless, and Dataloop are already preparing our infrastructure for an AI-driven future.
5. AI as the Glue of Convergence – AI will power everything, from robots to industrial control systems and software development. The key investment question remains: where does AI bring 10x efficiency gains, and what new markets does it enable? Companies like Dataloop and ArmorCode help AI run securely and efficiently.
6. Spatial Computing – A critical element of Convergence, spatial computing will address the challenge of managing high-definition, real-time 3D data. Software and data infrastructure must evolve to support this shift.
7. The Role of Space Infrastructure – Positioning, earth observation, and communication systems—integral to our daily lives—will continue evolving. Our investments in Xona, The Exploration Company, and a yet to be unannounced space communications business reflect this belief.
8. Quantum Technologies as a Disruptive Force – Though niche today, quantum computing, networking, and sensing will go mainstream within 20 years, profoundly affecting multiple industries. We are closely monitoring this evolution.

The Road Ahead

For the foreseeable future, we will assess investment opportunities through the lens of Convergence. In the near term this means backing entrepreneurs who are re-architecting data infrastructure, developing robotics and AI and enhancing space-based capabilities.

The next 20 years will be as eventful and surprising as the past 20. We hope you will join us in shaping the era of Convergence—making it an exciting and transformative future for us all.